S&P/MIB: Elliott wave counting at 16th of May 2008

Chart shows italian index S&P/MIB on continous line with daily timeframe (data updated to 9th of May). In contrast with my forecast, last week there has been a consolidation acting on our index within this oscillation bandwith: 33.800 (support) and 34.600 (resistance). On Monday 19th of May the index will start about 1.100 points down (around 33.200) because of the dividends. Then, the bear market rally could go on and the index will probably reach the descending trendline within the first days of June.

Targets up: 34.532, 35.300, 35.700-35.800 (starting from 33.200, C=61,8% of wave A).

Targets down: 33.800 (support), 32.700 (basement of wedge), 32.400 (50% retracement), 30.400 (previous bottom).

Next setup dates: 20th of May and 2nd of June.

Tentative scenario: down until 20th of May to 33.200 or even 32.700, then up until 2nd of June (at about 35.300 or 35.700).

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P/MIB: Elliott wave counting at 9th of May 2008

Chart shows italian index S&P/MIB on continous line with daily timeframe (data updated to 9th of May). Now the situation is clear: our setup date (7th of May) has worked properly. Since then, the index has begun to go down and support at 33.800 has been broken. The first wave of this fourth wave (4) has probably been completed with an ABC movement, with a final wedge (see chart).

Targets up: 33.800 (resistance), 34.532, 35.200-35.300 (starting from 32.700, C=61,8% of wave A)

Targets down: 32.700 (basement of wedge), 32.400 (50% retracement), 30.400 (previous bottom).

Next setup dates: 20th of May and 2nd of June.

Tentative scenario: down until 20th of May to targets indicated above (32.700 at least), then up until 2nd of June (at about 35.200-35.300).

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P/MIB: Gann fan at 2nd of May 2008

Chart shows S&P/MIB daily chart updated at 2nd f May 2008 with some relevant Gann fan lines.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P/MIB: Elliott wave counting at 2nd of May 2008

Chart shows italian index S&P/MIB on continous line with daily timeframe (data updated to 2nd of May). We are at the starting point of a wave C, probably third final wave of this wave (4). Wave B was a perfect wedge, it ended at 29th of April very near to our cycle end designed in the chart with dotted vertical line. Resistance at 34.000 has been broken and now the index will probably go up until 7th of May, at least. 34.532 is a first strong resistance to break.

Targets up: 34.532, 35.400-35.500 (C=38,2% of wave A), 36.000-36.100 (C=61,8% of wave A)

Targets down: 33.800, 32.400, 30.400 (previous bottom)

Next setup dates: 7th of May and 20th of May.

Tentative scenario: up until 7th of May, then down until 20th of May OR 7th of May is skipped and index goes up until 20th of May.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P/MIB: Elliott wave counting at 25th of April 2008

Chart shows italian index S&P/MIB on continous line with daily timeframe (data updated to 25th of April).
Nothing new to say: if the resistance break at 34.000 will be confirmed during next one or two sessions, index will rally to next targets at 34.700 or 35.500 until 7th of May. Otherwise, a break of near support at 33.400 will probably push the index towards a lateral movement or down movement to previous bottom until 7th of May. Rally is highly probable since the pessimism is very high.
We are still inside a fourth wave (4), in other words this is a real "bear market rally".

Targets up: 34.700, 35.500 (maximum top)
Targets down: 32.400, 30.400 (previous bottom)

Next setup dates: 7th of May and 20th of May.

Tentative scenario: up until 7th of May, then down until 20th of May.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

ETF HSCEI Lyxor Cina (CINA.MI): Elliott wave counting at 24th of April 2008

Chart shows ETF HSCEI Lyxor Cina (CINA.MI) continous line with daily timeframe.First impulsive bear wave (1) is complete.

Now this stock will probably develop a wave (2), corrective but ascending.

These are the probable targets of this wave (2):

- 120, end of previous wave 4 and 100% projection of wave 1/(2)

- 135, 50% retracement of wave (1) and about 1,618 times wave 1/(2)

- 155, end of previous wave 2 and about 2,618 times wave 1/(2)

This wave (2) will be very fast and featured by a high volatility. Targets indicated above will be reached very soon.

Setup dates: 5th of May and 15th of May.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P/MIB: Elliott wave counting at 18th of April 2008

Chart shows italian index S&P/MIB on continous line with daily timeframe (data updated to 14th of April).Setup dates of previous post has worked perfectly: the down movement has been stopped at 15th of April, only one day later than our setup (14th of April). Let's skip for a moment the bearish scenario (wave (3) extended). We probably are in a corrective wave (4). Since the previous correction wave (2) was zig-zag like, it is highly probable that this corrective wave (4) will be a flat, with a lateral sideways movement, with no direction. The top of this lateral movement could be 33.800 or 34.700 (previous top) and the bottom is 30.400 (previous bottom). If the index goes above 34.700, next top for lateral movement could be 35.500-35.700, but no more that this level. This wave (4) should end at 21st of May, then a final wave (5) will start and index should probably reach new bottoms during this Summer.

Targets up: 33.800 (previous top), 34.700, 35.500 (maximum top)

Targets down: 32.400, 30.400 (previous bottom)

Next setup dates: 18th or 21st of April, 24th of April and 7th of May.

Tentative scenario: up until 24th of April, then down until 7th of May.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!